Today I get another tip that the actual motive is to prove , yes prove to China that US also has the same capabilities. Jeffery's insight is very candid and he's on the same level as John Pike with regards to Intel.
[Source : NYT ] Jeffrey G. Lewis, an arms control specialist at the New America Foundation, warned that China would cite the intercept to justify its antisatellite test last year.
"The politics are terrible," Mr. Lewis said. "It will be used by the Chinese to excuse their hit-to-kill test. And it really strengthens the perceived link between antisatellite systems and missile defenses. We will be using a missile defense system to shoot down a satellite."
What is important is that currently there is no model available that relay the risk of a 'mis shot', debris estimates or Hydrazine effects.Whatever the probability that the hydrazine will survive and vent, it is less than 1. That probability must then be discounted by the probability that the tank will land near enough a person (let alone an immobile one) to cause human harm.In January 2007, the Chinese fired an SC-19 missile at a target satellite orbiting 475 miles overhead. About 1,600 pieces of debris, its remnants, were detected soon after that test.
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